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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.