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Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – not just who would win overall, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots added later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year went for Zohran now. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he does because then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.