Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
