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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still