Are You Not Being Entertained? This Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves managed 10 fewer scores from open-play situations than this point the previous campaign.

A key narrative of the Premier League this campaign is the reduction of scoring in open play and the way sides are finding goals more from set-plays as an alternative.

Comparing how goals have been scored to the first 11 games the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open play and 26 more from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer overall.

If we look at the broader view, efforts on goal teams are taking show an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than this time last time out.

Regardless of the notable jump in dead-ball scores, records show a mere two extra attempts created from them excluding penalties, indicating the proficiency teams are at devising strategies to net from set-pieces.

Goal Statistics Show the Tale

Over 300 goals notched in 110 matches so far averages out at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if this persists for the whole season would be the least for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).

However, only 196 scores coming in open-play averages out 1.78 each match and is on course to be the lowest for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76).

That campaign is also the sole English top-flight campaign to experience goals scored more often from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this season's rate of 0.77 each match (0.79).

Which Sides Bear the Most Responsibility?

Regarding goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the most significant decline, scoring just four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than this point last season.

Excluding Wolverhampton, the EPL's drop in goals from open play is predominantly a London thing, with five out of the London's seven clubs recording at least five goals fewer from open play than the previous year.

In fairness, that's largely down to them netting numerous goals at the start of last season as opposed to them really struggling to find the net in open play this campaign.

Conversely Manchester City have seen the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 goals to date arriving in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Looking at the promoted teams with those that were relegated that they superseded. Play-off champions Sunderland have netted an additional three scores in open play than the Saints achieved in their opening 11 matches on their way to relegation last season.

Regarding scoring from set-plays (aside from penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have recorded the largest rise, with the two clubs compensating for the reduction of five scores that they've scored in open play with identical figures from dead-ball situations.

Man United have recorded twice as many goals from set-plays as they did in matchday 11 last season ahead of Ruben Amorim took over, while the Black Cats once more prove better at netting than the similar-colored team they replaced.

Manchester City don't seem to have got the trend about scoring more from set-plays, as they've recorded a reduction of three than the previous campaign, like Nottingham Forest, even if this could be because of the altered approach they're working to install.

General Tendencies

Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Tottenham and the Hammers – have been this season's leading trend-followers by recording fewer goals from open-play and more from set-pieces, while Manchester City stand as the only side to defy the pattern up to now by achieving the complete reverse.

It will be interesting to observe if sides persist to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they regain their all-round creativity and begin scoring increased totals in open-play too.

Austin Fernandez
Austin Fernandez

A senior signal processing engineer with over 15 years of experience in telecommunications research and development.